Minutus

Farbod writes:


I hypothesize: The WTO stats aren't reliable. Anthrax reportedly manifests
as flu-like. If a doc thinks it's flu, s/he probably doesn't look for
anthrax -- probably even if the patient dies. Maybe especialy if the patient
dies -- what doc, especially a rural one, wants to be responsible for missing
anthrax. Though it seems the first clue might be that no one else around the
patient got his/her awful flu.

Also, in the USA and maybe elsewhere, docs give antibiotics for "everything",
which may have cleared anthrax cases without anyone knowing it.

Plus, the cases in the US currently have been traced to deliberate exposures
(mailed spores, whatever), which doesn't indicate an epidemic, only some
discrete evil. Particularly since anthrax isn't contagious between persons.

So I hypothesize that anthrax has occurred more than 3 times in the US
between 1988 and 1995, and that the current cases do not constitute an
epidemic. Of course, I'm only indulging in speculation, but it's maybe
somewhat educated (recently) speculation. Margaret

Dear Margaret
Thanks for your beautiful speculation. But let me give you some statistics:
1_Cutaneous anthrax is the most common form of the disease in humans,accounting for more than 95% of cases. this form has a well skin lesion. So in 95% of cases of anthrax we can have a distinct diagnosis.
2_In other 5% of cases : conclude inhalation anthrax and gastrointestinal anthrax
_ Inhalation anthrax: 1-6 days incubation period then abrief non spesific influenza-like syndrom manifested by high fever & fatigue and after that a phase of clinical improvement , then the patient becomes much more ill and death generally follows within 1-2 days later. In such cases the patient should be hospitalized and by a simple sputum sample they can find the organism.

So in both cases we never misdiagnos it with flu unless in beggining of inhalation form. The other poin: For the same disease (anthrax) they report several Asian and African countries as endemic.countries. Why we should suppose that they can find it in a larg nomber of countries unless US.

In the end let me tell you something: One of the largest epidemics of anthrax was reported in Zimbabwe between 1978 and 1980 when 10 000 cases of anthrax occured resulting in approximately 100 deaths. So thats not a fatal epidemics.

Thanks again
Farbod

Farbod writes:


I hypothesize: The WTO stats aren't reliable. Anthrax reportedly manifests
as flu-like. If a doc thinks it's flu, s/he probably doesn't look for
anthrax -- probably even if the patient dies. Maybe especialy if the patient
dies -- what doc, especially a rural one, wants to be responsible for missing
anthrax. Though it seems the first clue might be that no one else around the
patient got his/her awful flu.
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